Friday, October 31, 2008

KO on the election

My buddy Kevin O'Neill offers the kind of election analysis that only he can provide, from a sports gambling list e-mail (in the context of McCain as a wagering proposition):

McCain overperformed to the polls in primaries, while Obama underperformed to the polls in some of the critical swing states. This is called the "Bradley effect", where Ivy Leaguers don't do as well in elections as they did it polling. It is so-named because Bill Bradley, who attended Princeton, consistently would draw only 62% of the votes in his New Jersey Senate races after polling at 67% or higher. Obama, of course, went to Columbia and attended law school at Harvard. Is this a double Bradley effect, perhaps? This anti-Ivy League factor is in effect for the first time in a while, as in the last two election cycles, both major party nominees were Ivy Leaguers. This could really help McCain.

Of course there will likely be more votes in Ohio than there are voting age citizens. But perhaps this offsets the ACORN fraud factor, proving that favoring Obama has not cornered the drug-addled celebrity demographic, he picked up the critical Aerosmith lead guitarist endorsement. And I know a lot of people don't make up their mind until Joe Perry has spoken, though Brad Whitford is clearly more knowledgeable on defense issue.

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